Showing posts with label Senate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Senate. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Cautiously optimistic about Colorado Senate & Michael Bennet

Currently (0146 Wednesday Nov 3), per MSNBC, Senator Michael Bennet and challenger Ken Buck are separated by a few thousand votes. Nate Silver and Dave Weigel appear to think Denver, Boulder and Arapahoe counties have not reported a large fraction of their results, so Senator Bennet's a shoo-in. While I am obviously a Bennet partisan (having volunteered long hours, including 12+ hours today), I believe the race is much, much tighter, though I would bet that Senator Bennet wins.
Here are the gory details:
1. Boulder County estimated total turnout at 119k, out of 164k "active" voters; as of writing, 86459 votes have been counted, including 228 polling-day-votes. Senator Bennet leads 66.5-29.2. If the County estimate is correct, that means an additional 12k vote gain for Senator Bennet.
2. Denver County has 273,922 "active" voters. In the last General/Governor mid-term, 2006 (PDF), "active turnout" was 58.56%. If that remains constant (got a text from Hickenlooper that turnout was low!), that means a total vote of 160,408; so far, 149k votes have been counted, and Bennet leads 71-24.7. So there's an additional 5k vote gain for Bennet.
At the other extreme, in 2008 the active turnout was 89% - that means another 95k votes are still out there, and Bennet easily wins. I somehow doubt this high turnout was the case (see Hick's text from earlier.)
UPDATE (Wed 0800): As of 0415 Mountain, Denver County's FINAL unofficial tally is 174k votes in Denver, with Bennet winning 71.2-24.4. So that's a lead of 81,450 votes in Denver County, compared to 69,060 when I wrote this post last night. So an additional 12k vote gain rather than an additional 5k gain, thanks to 5% higher turnout than in 2006 - 63.6% in the Senate race.

3. Arapahoe County appears to have ALL its vote counted, with a turnout of 164k out of 273k "active" voters, despite what the NYT says ("11% reporting").
UPDATE (Wed 2000): Denver Post says that as of this morning, 30k votes were still out; as of 5 PM, the County reports 180k votes tallied, with Bennet up 49-45.7. So even if another 15k votes are out there, Bennet will still win!
4. Weld and El Paso counties appear to be almost all done, as do most of the rural Colorado counties - ASSUMING the afore-mentioned NYT report is correct. Still, with the current totals including 170k votes from El Paso county (Colorado Springs!), I doubt there are many more votes there.
UPDATE: Weld County, Ken Buck's home, do appear to have all their ballots counted. El Paso, OTOH, has a sucky website.
UPDATE (0830 Wed): Per the NYT, El Paso county is 100% in, and Ken Buck gained (I think) another 3k votes. SENATOR MICHAEL BENNET IS AHEAD BY ALMOST 7500 VOTES, BOULDER STILL COUNTING!

Add up 1 & 2, we get (at a minimum) about a 17k additional vote gain for Senator Bennet from Denver and Boulder - a potential victory margin of 10k votes for the incumbent Democrat. (UPDATED/CORRECTED: This is BIGGER THAN the 0.5% margin of the highest vote-getter, or 3,900 votes - NOT the vote-TOTAL - that triggers a recount.)

As I said, cautiously optimistic.

FINAL UPDATE (Sat AM): With 97% precincts reporting, Michael Bennet has won by 15k votes - thanks to an increased turnout in Denver county.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Why I support Michael Bennet

The Colorado Senate race between Michael Bennet and Ken Buck is one of the closest races in the November 2010 mid-term election, and could determine if the GOP takes control of the Senate. More importantly, it will determine who will be Colorado's junior Senator for the next six years.

The case against Republican Ken Buck is very clear. Ken Buck is socially very conservative, opposing abortions even in cases of rape and incest; he apparently lacks any understanding whatsoever of date rape; he thinks homosexuality is mostly a choice, against modern scientific knowledge; and he supports continuing Don't Ask, Don't Tell (DADT). His main goal as a Senator appears to be to act as a road-block against President Obama's agenda (think climate change and comprehensive immigration reform), and he also promises to repeal the healthcare reforms passed recently, in their entirety. Overall, someone who will prevent any progress in the future, and will roll back as many of the legislative successes achieved by President Obama and the Democrats in the past two years as possible.

But more important than voting against someone is getting to vote for someone. And I am proud to state that I am unequivocally for Senator Michael Bennet. My reasons are as follows:

1. Senator Bennet believes in using the power of government for good (stimulating the economy, regulating insurance companies and Wall Street, the Lilly Ledbetter Act, the Matthew Shepard Act) and not in (ab)using it to control our personal lives, for example DADT (fun videos here!) or denying women abortion rights.
- In fact, seems to me that Senator Bennet is a civil libertarian on this (and other) issues: "I will work hard to defend the rights of my girls to govern their own reproductive health from government intrusion." (link)

2. Senator Bennet seeks to find solutions to problems and works with Democrats and Republicans alike; for example, the Pay It Back Act to pay down the Federal deficit with repaid TARP funds (supported by Republican Senators Bob Corker and Johnny Isakson, and Democrats Mark Udall and Jon Tester, among others.)

3. Some liberals/progressives may disagree, but Senator Bennet supported sending out $250 checks to seniors who did not receive a COLA increase in their SS pay, only if it was paid for from left over stimulus funds.
(Why I think this is a reasonable approach: There was little to no inflation, so there should be no COLA. So to me, the only rationale for the $250 check is as a form of stimulus, ergo, it can be paid out of ARRA.)

4. Democrats and other folks frustrated with a seeming lack of progress since January 2009 should remember that Republicans time and again mounted what was effectively a filibuster. Democrats might have had almost-60 Senators; that's close, but no cigar. Senators Kennedy and Byrd were often sick; Senator Franken was not officially elected till mid-2009. So Democrats had to seek compromises with "moderate" Republicans. We saw how the negotiations with GOP Senators Snowe, Collins and Specter reduced the size of the stimulus bill (ARRA); fruitless talks with Senators Grassley, Enzi and Snowe stalled healthcare reform; and for all the GOP's bluff-and-bluster about supporting small businesses, Republican Senators blocked a bill easing lending to small businesses for months, till two retiring GOP Senators helped break the filibuster. And yet, Democrats seem unwilling to do away with the filibuster, likely out of fear that if they are reduced to minority status in the future, they will not be able to block Republican bills.
As far as I can tell, the best plan to reform the filibuster has been proposed by Senator Michael Bennet, which preserves the filibuster, but does not allow a permanent block. Read Congress Matters expert David Waldman (KagroX on Dailykos and Twitter) on the filibuster; this is what Waldman says about Senator Bennet's solution:
As part of his Senate rules reform proposal, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) proposes making the motion to proceed non-debatable while the Senate is in legislative session. And when I last wrote about it, I didn't know that his proposal for ending secret holds was in fact based on doing that. It's a smart proposal that would do for bills in legislative session what I described as being the case for nominations in executive session. That is, it knocks down one procedural hurdle (the ability to filibuster the motion to proceed to consideration of a bill) and leaves just the one hurdle -- the ability to filibuster the bill itself.
That last is perhaps the wonkiest, but also the most important reason I support Senator Michael Bennet - a level-headed, (reasonably) bipartisan approach to solving problems.

Video update: Here's Senator Bennet testifying before the Senate Rules Committee on filibuster reform:

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Thoughts on CO-Senate Democratic primary

In the upcoming Colorado Senate primary on the Democratic side, we have Sen. Michael Bennet, formerly Denver Public Schools Superintendent and appointed by (now-outgoing) Gov. Bill Ritter to fill Secretary Ken Salazar's vacant Senate seat, and Andrew Romanoff, erstwhile Speaker of of the Colorado House of Representatives.
Romanoff is seen as the progressive in the race, and won the earlier caucus; but the Democratic candidate will be decided by a primary held on August 10, 2010. Sadly, the race has turned somewhat nasty, with Romanoff claiming not to take any "special-interest" money, and charging Bennet as being in the pockets of Wall Street. Sen. Bennet's campaign has hit back with an ad exposing Romanoff's past acceptance of PAC funds, for which Romanoff has since "apologized".

Firstly, both candidates would be better than the Republican (Ken Buck or Jane Norton). Second, progressives/liberals may think less of Sen. Bennet for the laws he helped the Obama administration pass - no single-payer healthcare or even a public option, no breaking up of the big banks, continuing bank bail-outs. But frankly, if Romanoff had been appointed Senator instead of Bennet, he would have cast the very same votes that Bennet did - that was the party line! What would "progressives" rather have Bennet do - vote against health care and Wall Street reform, thus bringing both of them down, leading to President Obama's Waterloo?

So in that sense, tomato/tomahto. But a choice has to be made. For starters, I have actually met the man, and perhaps that sways me. That aside, Bennet is relatively fresh - though he was Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper's Chief-of-Staff, in a sense he is not a career politician a la Andrew Romanoff. Bennet also has extensive private sector experience, successfully reorganizing/managing large companies in distress. Hopefully, Bennet will put that experience to good use as the Obama administration and Congress lead us out of the current economic mess - though thus far, his actions have tended to underwhelm me.

But overall, I'd rather see Michael Bennet nominated (and win!)

UPDATE:
Rule of politics-as-usual: The candidate that is behind is the first to go negative. And so, just like a typical politician, Andrew Romanoff has unleashed some vicious, false campaign ads. These have been the subject of articles by Michael Booth of the Denver Post and Dana Milbank in the Washington Post. (Milbank once worked for Romanoff, and has some interesting background on Romanoff's style.)
With these attack ads, Romanoff has gained ground on Bennet, and they are now even. But these gains have come at a cost. I have found that Bennet supporters tend to support the Democrat-who-wins-the-primary. But now, at least one has stated on Facebook that she will NOT support Romanoff any more even if he wins, and I will add myself to that group.
Meta-thought: Romanoff proudly states that he has been named "top legislator" during his term in the Colorado House, for bringing together Republicans and Democrats, and this is what he will bring to Washington. But look at the man's actions: in pursuit of the Democratic nomination, Romanoff has chosen the "win-at-all-costs" route, effectively setting Democrats against each other, and souring Bennet supporters who were willing to work with him. If he is so eager and willing to tear Democrats apart, does anybody believe he will fare any better with Republicans who are bent on defeating President Obama?
Sorry, Mr Speaker, you have revealed yourself to be nothing but a cynical, run-of-the-mill politician, and would fit right into Washington, DC.

UPDATE 2:
I found out today that Speaker Romanoff is on the Executive Committee of the Colorado Democratic Leadership Council. The DLC is a group of centrist Democrats, even though the "about" section of the CO DLC claims to be "progressives"; prominent members include President Bill Clinton (think welfare reform) and Harold Ford, Jr. There's nothing wrong with a Third Way approach (except it is often reviled by liberals); but Speaker Romanoff is running hard to the left to win the CO-Senate Democratic primary, even going to the extent of supporting single-payer healthcare.
Reformers have put forth two general models to fix this ailing system. Some propose a single-payer, single-administrator system to cut administrative costs. They cite the fact that Medicare spends only 4 percent of its budget on administration, and their ideal model often looks like Medicare for all. Unfortunately, this model would leave fee-for-service payment in place -- insuring continued rapid cost inflation. Nor does it address the fragmentation that creates so much waste. On a practical level, it would require us to put the health-insurance industry out of business, a daunting political task.
The article linked above, dated January 2009, goes on to lay out strategies for successful reform of the healthcare system in America, including encouraging healthy behavior, electronic records, managed competition among health plans, and special health courts to contain medical malpractice costs.
I am pretty sure most, if not all, of these DLC-suggested objectives are met with the health care reform passed by the current Congress, including Senator Bennet. They have the worthy aim of reducing healthcare costs, which is often a major impediment to getting health insurance. The new health care reforms also prohibit (as of August 1, 2010, I believe) exclusion of patients due to pre-existing conditions.
Will these reforms make health care affordable? I would like to think so, and certainly hope so. Is it single-payer, Medicare-for-All? No, and based on the DLC's memo, and reporting such as that by Atul Gawande in the New Yorker, I am not sure that's such a good idea.

Nevertheless, the bottom line is, Speaker Romanoff is (was?) a DLC-er, and if he truly believed in the principles of the DLC (rather than becoming a member only to ingratiate himself with President Clinton and then-Senator Ken Salazar), he would be praising the health care reform passed with the aid of Senator Bennet. Instead, he faults the reform effort and pushes for single-payer - something that endears him to liberals, but will NOT contain costs on its own.
Clearly, yet another cynical ploy by Speaker Romanoff to win the Democratic primary. Shame.

UPDATE 3:
Like I mentioned earlier, on the issues, Senator Bennet and Speaker Romanoff are largely alike. As part of the Senate, Bennet has voted to push through healthcare reform, Wall Street reform, and stimulus funding/unemployment benefits, though none of these are exactly what the liberal left wants. On the other hand, Speaker Romanoff, during his tenure in the CO State House, pushed through anti-illegal immigration measures that he touted as the toughest in the country. With comprehensive immigration reform next on the Democrats' agenda, I am not sure if I want someone like Speaker Romanoff voting on the issue - read Julie Gonzales.
In addition, if my previous updates did not make it clear - I am absolutely disgusted by Speaker Romanoff's misleading, disingenuous attacks on Senator Bennet, not to mention his sudden change of heart from a centrist DLC-er to a liberal, conveniently timed for the primary.

I now firmly support Senator Michael Bennet.

Bonus: Senator Bennet's autobiographical video, following his promise to remain positive in the final days of the campaign:


Bennet for Senate! Go Michael!

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Meet and greet with Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO)

A couple days back I got an e-mail about Senator Bennet's visit to Boulder (Bennet wiki).  Bennet is the replacement for now-Secretary Ken Salazar, and will be up for election in 2010.
The gathering was at a South Boulder/Shanahan Ridge home, about 6 miles away.  Figured I'd ride my bike - unfortunately, it was uphill for a good bit, and the ride took me about 40 minutes.  At least it was a good day for a bike ride!

Senator Bennet gave a speech, and I got in toward the end.  Told a couple cute stories about his kids - he was head of the Denver public school system before his appointment to the Senate.  Then there was a Q&A session.

A wide range of questions - climate change/cap-and-trade (he will vote for it), card check (undecided), school system reform (said existing system was not working except for some pockets - presumably, like Denver).  Someone asked about bank nationalization, and he said "at 80% owned by the federal government, it's pretty much nationalized!" [Talking about AIG; the US government owns 36% of Citi.]  But the fear of "socialism" keeps them from calling nationalization just that.  Talked about how he was considered for the Education Secretary's post that eventually went to Arne Duncan, and how Obama personally called him (Bennet) to tell him he was not selected.  Bennet was apparently one of the early supporters of Obama's presidential bid, so "nobody can try to separate me from Obama!"
A peace-nik asked him about President Obama's plans for Afghanistan - "war is not the answer!"  His response - there are dangerous elements in Afghanistan and along the border with Pakistan, so "you and I are probably not on the same page at this time."  Yay!

As expected, with a crowd of about 100, time ran out.  He remained for a few minutes, talking with people, and I got a chance to say hello.  Thanked him for his reply to the Afghanistan question - he said yes, we can't just up-and-leave. [Words to that effect.]
He asked me where I was from - "India." "Which part?" "Bombay." "I was born in Delhi!"  His father worked in the US Consulate in the 60s, so his parents lived there for 4 years, he was there for one.  He apparently visited India in the '90s; "I would love to go back!"  You should, Senator!

Definitely not a typical politician, but as he himself said, he won't be for a couple years (as people keep reminding him he was only appointed!)  Oh well (to his eventual conversion).  I like him, though, and who knows - maybe I might even campaign for him!

Monday, May 26, 2008