Florida:
Clinton 48, McCain 41
McCain 45, Obama 41
Ohio:
Clinton 48, McCain 41
McCain 44, Obama 40
Pennsylvania:
Clinton 50, McCain 37
Obama 46, McCain 40
It looks like Senator Clinton carries all three swing states, while Senator Obama would lose the GE.... That's a strong argument for the superdelegates to swing towards Senator Clinton for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
However, these polls are taken now, when Senator Clinton is desperately trying everything to win the nomination - including arguing that "working, hard-working Americans, white Americans" are not supporting Senator Obama [ummm... guess Blacks are not hard-working].
She poses as the defender of civil rights, fighting all the way to Denver to ensure that the entire Florida and Michigan delegations are seated as per the disqualified January primaries. [Even though she herself said these elections do not count, and events of the past few months have proved that with sufficient campaigning, the race between Senators Clinton and Obama would be much tighter than the January FL/MI primaries would have us believe. Yes, that last part is part of Senator Obama's argument.]
And she has finally started saying - explicitly - that sexism and misogyny is preventing her from winning the nomination. [Never mind that, IMO, it is her own campaign mismanagement that has cost her the nomination.]
Where that lands us is here: Clinton supporters are particularly aggrieved that the nomination, which Senator Clinton was entitled to, has been stolen by a smooth-talking, dashing, younger man. This is clear in the Quinnipac poll cross-tabs. There is some animosity on both sides, but Obama supporters - despite the fact that Senator Clinton would be the nominee by overturning the results of primaries and caucuses - still vote for Senator Clinton 74-14, while Clinton supporters favor Senator Obama only 48-31.
| | | | | Obama supporters | | | | | Obama supporters |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 91 | | 81 | | Obama | 43 | | 98 |
| McCain | | 6 | | 10 | | McCain | 36 | | 2 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 95 | | 70 | | Obama | 50 | | 95 |
| McCain | | 4 | | 18 | | McCain | 26 | | 3 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 93 | | 70 | | Obama | 51 | | 95 |
| McCain | | 5 | | 14 | | McCain | 32 | | 4 |
| Average | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 93 | | 74 | | Obama | 48 | | 96 |
| McCain | | 5 | | 14 | | McCain | 31 | | 3 |
So - many Clinton supporters will either stay home or vote for Senator McCain in November. This, despite the fact that on the issues (which is what one expects would be the basis for rational decisions), Senators Clinton and Obama are much more similar than the Democrat and the Republican. This is NOT a case of A and A', as some characterized the Bush v. Gore election while voting for Nader.
Sexism didn't prevent Senator Clinton from competing effectively in caucuses, and misogyny didn't make her campaign broke and unable to compete in post-SuperTuesday February contests, which is where this nomination was won by Senator Obama. I just hope that come November, most Clinton supporters will make a rational decision rather than decide to vote for, or otherwise enable, a third Bush term.
[UPDATE 5/23: Professor Robert Eisinger, making a guest appearance at Pollster.com, points out that these GE polls should ask a follow-up question - what happens if Senator Clinton enthusiastically campaigns for Senator Obama? That should make her McCain-voting followers rethink their decision.]
By the way - SurveyUSA has a bunch of new polls coming out. These show Senator Obama beating Senator McCain 49-42 in Virginia (13 electoral votes neither Gore nor Kerry won); winning PA by 8% (agreeing with Quinnipac); and tying Senator McCain in New Mexico. A new Rasmussen poll puts Senator Obama ahead 48-42 in Colorado (9 non-Gore/Kerry EVs). So... the 2000/2004 electoral maps do not appear valid in 2008.
[UPDATE 5/23: Here's a dkos post along the same lines, with links to more polls.]
