The third debate

The third and final Presidential debate ended earlier this evening, with pretty much the same results as the earlier two debates.  Neither candidate scored a knock-out, and so McCain has not done much to change the state of the race - which doesn't bode well for the Republican.

The most enduring image of the debate for me was McCain's reaction to Obama's statement that Joe the Plumber would pay ZERO fines if Joe didn't buy health insurance for his (future?) employees.  McCain gaped aghast - he clearly was not expecting that!  Video via kos:

I am so happy to have that video... On a second watch, McCain's reaction is simply b-e-a-u-t-i-f-u-l.

It was also surprising to see the Democrat argue against wasteful spending of taxpayer money - like buying mortgages at face value, or higher health care costs due to ER visits by uninsured people.

Outside of that, though, I thought Obama could have socked McCain at least a couple of times.  For instance, after Obama said "zero" fines for JtP, McCain just continued to spout his "will have to pay fines" line.  Obama could have simply said, "didn't you hear me, John?"  Or when McCain said toward the end "so if there aren't enough vouchers, lets not do it?  I understand!" - Obama could have said "vouchers are your only solution to education; I have a much more comprehensive approach - including charter schools - because the youth are America's future."  Or about ACORN (this might be a too-subtle point, but let's not underestimate voters) - "you could register Mickey Mouse or one guy 23 times, but Mickey Mouse is not going to vote, and a guy can vote only once!" [After all, McCain did say "democracy is endangered by ACORN!"]

In trying to avoid a gaffe/not lose, I think Obama let a great opportunity to KO McCain slip away.  It's just like the primaries - Obama's running out the clock, content that he has a definite lead that he has to protect.  Unlike the primaries, though, Obama has a lead in the polls - but nothing in the bag, yet.

Still, I remain cautiously optimistic...

The second debate

The second Presidential debate between Obama and McCain was supposed to be a townhall-style meeting.  But all it had in that vein was questions from voters, with some voters personally asking the questions and Tom Brokaw reading off some questions submitted via the Internet.  There were no follow-up questions, with only one somewhat extended discussion between Obama and McCain.  That was one shortcoming.

There were some good questions, and good answers - Obama mentioning the $400k AIG junket, Obama's "I'll take out bin Laden even if he's in Pakistan" statement, McCain saying "talk softly and carry a big stick."  Though Obama hit McCain hard on that last point, mentioning "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran", McCain's promise to annihilate North Korea, and "Next stop, Baghdad!"

Earlier in the campaign, Obama hit McCain for suspending his campaign to work on the bailout plan, saying a President should be able to work on more than one thing at a time.  So perhaps in a turn of events, when Brokaw asked them to prioritize between health care, SS/Medicare and energy, McCain said "we can work on all 3!" while Obama said "first energy, second health care, and third, education" (but not entitlements!)

In response to a question about the effect of the bailout plan on ordinary working Americans, McCain gave his standard stump speech, while Obama explained how the plan would affect ordinary folk (as in small businesses may not make payroll due to a lack of credit), in addition to his spiel.  There were one or two questions where neither answered, and instead gave their standard stump speech.

Overall, though, I thought there was no clear winner (though the CNN and CBS flash polls say Obama won by a bit).  Obama came off looking very unruffled, looking intently at McCain when McCain was speaking - as the talking heads said, good body language, and most importantly, Obama looked Presidential.  I thought McCain looked old, perhaps even wheezing a little.  So all in all, Obama won.

Aside - the in-house audience was made up of undecided voters from the Nashville area.  What...?  Do Tennesseans really matter? :-)  And KeithO and ChrisM kept talking about McCain's "that one" (referring to Obama) and "not you, Tom!" (on candidates for SecTreasury).  That was stupid, and those comments barely registered on me.  On this, I am with Mike Duhaime, the McCain guy, who said Mathews should focus on the substantive issues.  Now, if only the McCain campaign itself would follow that advice...

[Update] EJ Dionne reminds me of a question that I thought McCain would hit out of the ballpark, but didn't: "As president, what sacrifices -- sacrifices will you ask every American to make to help restore the American dream and to get out of the economic morass that we're now in?"  McCain's campaign was centered around sacrifice (well, mostly military, apparently), but it was Obama who gave the much better answer.  As Dionne writes:

McCain spoke almost entirely about cutting or freezing government programs. It was a strange answer from a man whose military career was characterized by years of punishing patriotic sacrifice.

Obama caught the idealism behind the query, criticizing President Bush's call for Americans to shop after the Sept. 11 attacks. He spoke of the need for individual energy conservation; called for expansion of service programs, including the Peace Corps; and described the hunger among young people to serve their country. McCain sounded like a legislator, Obama like a president.

Update 2: Jon Stewart, one of the most astute political observers, reminds me of Obama's reply to McCain's "let folks buy health insurance across state boundaries" - that the insurance companies would move to the state with most lax regulations to reduce their cost and increase profits, like the banking industry does in... Delaware! Ummm.... with the help of regulations written by your VP? Ouch!

The VP debate

The only VP debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin was... interesting.  Joe Biden was remarkably restrained, on-message (attacking only John McCain), and didn't come off as either Papa Bush (against Ferraro) or Rick Lazio (against Clinton).  The best Sarah Palin could do was be folksy and wink at/flirt with the audience, and try to be Reaganesque ("Say it ain't so, Joe... there you go again!") as she repeatedly avoided answering the questions.  Unfortunately, Gwen Ifill didn't push her; maybe she was a little wary of appearing partisan after the recent right-wing attacks on her neutrality for writing her book on Black politicians.

On climate change, Sarah Palin said she's not convinced about anthropogenic (my word, not hers!) effects - but that we should do something about it (even if it's just, as Palin apparently believes, natural cyclical changes?)  Palin also claimed that the USA should bring other countries along - but ummm... isn't the USA, under Bush, the only industrialized country to not sign the Kyoto Protocol?  Joe Biden, quite appropriately, pointed out that without knowing the reason, we can't fix the problem.  And he also said that pollution from China affects the western USA, showing a depth of knowledge (or at least, awareness, which is just as important).

On Israel, Sarah Palin said "I am so encouraged to know that we both love Israel." (h/t Milbank)  Ummm... you are talking to Joe Biden, who's been doing this s*** ever since you were in the second grade.  I am glad Joe didn't point out what a neophyte she is, who said recently that she was too busy governing Alaska to follow the war in Iraq (and if she can't do that, what about other foreign policy issues, like Israel?)  That might have been taken as "sexism."  Also, doesn't Sarah Palin's Church seek to convert, or at least encourages conversion of, Jews to Christianity?  What sort of a friend to Israel is she?

Toward the end, Joe Biden had an awesome smackdown of "Maverick" McCain - "on the issues important to the American people, he's no maverick!"  And best of all, Joe related his touching story of knowing what it felt like to wonder if his child would survive... It was genuine, heart-felt, and warm.

And all Palin said in response was... "mavericks!  we are mavericks!"  Yes, you definitely are - while the rest of America was sympathetic toward Joe, you just trod on... All the folksiness was revealed as an artifice, just cold calculation.  Kos says "Anyone who knows what Biden has had to deal with raising his kids wouldn't have blithely made that comment."  Someone who knows but doesn't give a s***, easily would have.  And that a***hole was Sarah "hockey mom with a Down's child" Palin.

Barack Obama picked a great Vice-President.  John McCain played craps with the country's future.

The first debate

The first debate between Senators Obama and McCain was reasonably good.  McCain kept yammering away that Obama "does not understand" - but Obama showed that claim to be hollow through his thoughtful, considered responses to Jim Lehrer's questions as well as McCain's accusations.  Throughout the debate, I kept yelling at Obama to state the obvious - that Osama bin Laden is still free because of Bush-McCain's singular focus on Iraq.  Repeating this mantra throughout the debate would have done some good - unlike McCain's juvenile, disrespectful "Obama does not understand."  Still, I am glad Obama pointed out bin Laden is free and Al-Qaeda is growing, as his closing argument - a strong finish.

If anything, this debate was a tie, which benefits Obama much more than McCain.  McCain came off as a jerk, while Obama was cool personified.*  More than that, Obama showed he's well-versed in foreign policy, and that an Obama Presidency would not be a risky proposition.  Now all Obama has to do is point out - matter of factly - that a President McCain would be dangerous, driven by a "beautiful fatalism" that would lead to another Cold War, which is what McCain appears most comfortable with.

Today, more than ever, I feel confident that Obama will win this election.

* Alas, the original Mr Cool passed away this morning.  Paul Newman, RIP.  Your "Newman's Own Virgin Lemonade" is a staple.