Monday, November 3, 2008

Florida polls

Florida is essential to a McCain victory, and so two recent polls by PPP and SurveyUSA (via Pollster) make me slightly optimistic.  Both show a small Obama lead, 50-48 (PPP) and 50-47 (SUSA).  That could be just two polls matching due to the wrong reasons, but the internals seem quite similar.

Early voting:
PPP says 56% has already voted, and Obama wins them 56-43.  McCain leads E-day voters 56-38.
SUSA says 58% have voted, and Obama wins them 58-40.  McCain leads E-day voters 54-42.

Gender split:
PPP: Obama wins women 52-47; is tied among men at 49.
SUSA: Obama wins women 50-47; also wins men 49-47.

Ethnic splits (pollster, fraction of voters):
Whites: McCain 57-41 (PPP, 70%) or 53-43 (SUSA, 69%)
Hispanics: Obama 55-42 (PPP, 13%) or 53-44 (SUSA, 15%)
Blacks: Obama 93-6 (PPP, 13%) or 81-16 (SUSA, 12%) - the latter result seems weird, but the subgroup sample size is small.

Age-group composition and splits seem slightly different, but neither pollster uses the same age groups.

IMO, two independent polls showing roughly the same result is an indicator which means Obama has a good chance of winning FL.  Fingers crossed... In the mean time, I will be doing my part at Getting Out The Vote in Colorado.  We still gotta win this state!

1 comment:

Alkibiades said...

The early voting stats so far are just amazing! Mostly for the states that are breaking records all over the country--a wonderful sight to see--but also for the states who are early voting *below* their 2004 totals.

Two states I find particularly interesting in this category: Arizona and my own dear Texas.

Could this be a sign of depressed Republican turnout? I guess we'll find out tonight!!