1. CNN-allocated pledged delegates: 1096-977 (+superdelegates: 1253-1211)
a. I estimate a final count of: 1144-1001 (1301-1235)
2. Popular vote totals are available only for states with primaries (in millions):
b. IF we include
(only 2/3 of the "uncommitted" vote in
3. Senator Obama has also won ten caucuses, usually by large margins (difference between allocated state delegates in parentheses):
Add the popular votes that these caucus results represent, and Senator Obama is well ahead.
These numbers were generated using CNN's data. My estimated final counts were obtained, as explained in earlier posts, by allocating all state- and district-level delegates based on the state-wide vote, unless CNN allocated all such delegates, in which case I used the CNN numbers.
Next week, we have
b. A PPP poll for the
As we head into
Let us say that Senator Obama wins the
Texas is part-primary, part-caucus; let us say Senator Obama wins the caucus portion by an even smaller margin, 55-45 (this assumption from Election Inspection's Texas work). Then, even if Senator Clinton wins all four March 4 states 60-40, she could still trail Senator Obama by ~95 pledged delegates, which - as of now - is more than the difference in superdelegates. Thus, even with blowout wins in
Of course, this does not count Florida/Michigan delegates; if these delegates are fully counted, they could give Senator Clinton ~233 delegates compared to ~135 for Senator Obama. That would even up the pledged delegate count, with Senator Clinton getting the edge on the basis on superdelegates. And then we wait for
Earlier tonight on CNN, I heard James Carville proclaim that if Senator Clinton wins
While I think Senator Obama's path to the nomination is not easy, I don't think Senator Clinton will get blowout wins in
[UPDATED] A win in either Texas or Ohio could well tip the balance in Senator Obama's favor, as the one outstanding argument against him - he has not won primaries in big states outside of Illinois, Georgia and now Virginia- should be fully answered. Expect more money and superdelegates to flow to Senator Obama, and peer pressure on Senator Clinton to drop out.
No wonder the
(a) Patti Solis Doyle, Senator Clinton's campaign manager and long-time aide, quit on Sunday, dominating CNN headlines - for a long time Obama's Maine win did not headline CNN, even after Maine was called by CNN;
(b) Mike Henry, the deputy campaign manager, also quit. Henry apparently quit on Monday, but "volunteered" with the campaign for two days before the news came out today - on the day of the
Senator Clinton apparently had a chance to win either