Monday, February 4, 2008

Pre-Super Tuesday... prediction?!

I am really getting into US politics. To the extent that I made a table estimating the delegates Senators Obama and Clinton could win on Super Tuesday!
The data are from - I used the median percentages and (betraying my colors here) the polls most favorable to Senator Obama (A). The state- and district-level delegate counts were obtained from National Journal.

Delegates Total Clinton Obama Clinton (A) Obama (A)
Current (from CNN) 137 48 63 48 63
Super Tuesday 1681 897 755 823 829
Post-ST 1818 945 818 871 892
Clinton - Obama
127 -21
Superdelegates (from CNN, pre-ST) 184 95
Edwards 26

To get these values, I divided the state-wide and district-level delegates proportionally to the expected state-wide vote percentage. I excluded all other candidates (could be a mistake, particularly for New Mexico). Caveat emptor!

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