As of 11.48 PM Mountain time, my estimates of the elected delegate count post-Super Tuesday:
Senator Obama 905 (887; predicted 892)
Senator Clinton 884 (876; predicted 871)
Numbers in parentheses are the totals less the ND and AK delegates, to compare against my earlier "predictions" - given above are my "most favorable to Senator Obama" estimates. Quite close, despite the large margins of Clinton wins in MA/NJ/CA! An excellent day for Senator Obama.
Some salient results:
1. Obama wins 13 states, Clinton 8 (NM is tied as of writing; no data for American Samoa)
2. Despite Clinton's projected win in California, Obama's big wins in Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Minnesota and Kansas make up the difference.
3. Obama won very well in all six caucus states, with victory margins from 24% in North Dakota to 63% in Idaho; average 42% (as of writing). A combination of "it's a movement!" and the "Reverse Bradley Effect"?
4. "As goes California, so goes the nation" - but Missouri is the "bellwether state"! Who wins?
5. A preview of the spin we might see soon enough - Clinton wins in traditional Democratic strongholds, but Obama does way better in Republican-dominated states, while (almost) holding his own in tDs. A fair argument, no?
Once again, these totals were obtained by dividing the state- and district-level delegates proportionally between Senators Obama and Clinton, as per their vote fraction reported by CNN at this time. Since none of the other candidates broke 15% state-wide, the only issue will be distribution of district-level delegates. Still, I think this is a reasonable approximation :-)
I will post my final numbers when the votes are all in - probably Thursday?